RED gets into the Reading FC matchday programme these days, providing analysis and forecasts for the day’s match. Today Reading entertain Cardiff in the FA Cup. It’s a tight match, if league form is anything to go by, with Reading in 15th and Cardiff in 13th. A 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome, but as is the case with scorelines, most of the probabilities are small – 12.5% for the 1-1 draw. As such, we as boffins don’t mind making predictions that are a little away from what is the most likely (12.5%), and in this case, in the matchday programme we opted for a 1-0 win for the Royals, which is 12% likely. Here’s our blurb in the programme:

“This may be a Cup match, but we can’t look beyond the numbers, and the league form of these two sides. The Royals remain in good spirits after some hard fought results in recent weeks, and we see this one going the same way. We think it’s a 1-0 win for Reading at 12%.”

Go buy your programme, and let us know if you think you can do better!