The University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model has crunched the numbers to look at how this season’s Premier League is most likely to end. Based on 1000 simulations of the Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each team finishing in positions 1-20.
In every one of these simulations, Liverpool come top, giving them a forecast 99.3% chance of winning the league this season.
Champions League qualification (top 4): Manchester City have a 99.8% chance, Leicester 93%, Chelsea 46%, Wolves 14%, Manchester Utd 12%, Spurs 13%, Sheffield Utd 11% and Southampton 3%.
Relegation (bottom 3): Norwich have a 85% of going down, Bournemouth 59%, Watford 42%, Brighton 35%, West Ham 39%, Aston Villa 21%, Burnley 5% and Crystal Palace 5%.
Based on all matches and results up to and including 23/1/2020