RED has been busy this week creating end-of-season probabilities. Back to the scoreline forecasts tonight for a full set of lower league matches. Whopping discrepancy between RED and the bookies for the match at Prenton Park between Tranmere and Sunderland. Almost complete agreement that Southend don’t stand a chance at Doncaster.

Reminder that we’re using Reuters acronyms now.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.