The University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model has crunched the numbers to look at how this season’s Premier League is most likely to end. Based on 1000 simulations of the Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each team finishing in positions 1-20.

Compared with our last update, there has only been one further league match, in addition to any new impacts on estiamted form and future resource demands from the FA Cup results last weekend.

Following Liverpool’s routine away win at West Ham, there chances of becoming champions have risen form 99.3% to 99.9%. In other words, in only 1/1000 of the simulations did they throw away their league, compared with 7/1000  before the win over the Hammers.

West Ham weren’t expected to get anything from that fixture, but nevertheless their chances of relegation have increased from 39% to 45%. Consequently, the other teams chances of avoiding relegation have marginally improved.

Final League table forecast, RED, PL, 31/1/2020

Based on all matches and results up to and including 30/1/2020