More action in the lower leagues this weekend. How will it affect the end of season probabilities for Leagues One and Two? The Buckinghamshire Derby takes place at in Milton Keynes, with RED making Wycombe slight favourites, but the bookies making MK Dons even slighter favourites. Another crunch match takes place on the South Coast between Portsmouth and Sunderland. RED makes Portsmouth overwhelming favourites to win (58.4%), the bookies only give them 43.6%.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.