The FA Cup has gone and got in the way of the Premier League’s Winter Break. It’s led to easily the biggest divergence to date between RED and the Bookies. RED expects Liverpool to field a vaguely normal kind of team, and gives them a 93.2% chance of winning – League One Shrewsbury just a 0.7%. But the bookies have read Jurgen Klopp’s comments: “The Premier League asked us to respect the winter break. That’s what we do. If the FA doesn’t respect that, then we cannot change it. We will not be there.” The bookies have Liverpool at only 52.7% to win.
Another intriguing game takes place in Cardiff, where RED’s local favourites Reading square up to the Welsh team for the third time in four games. The previous two were 1-1, which is usually the most likely score. But RED fancies Cardiff tonight, with 1-0 the most likely score (in 90 minutes).
Can Rooney’s Derby get past League Two Northampton to play his old team Man United in the fifth round? RED gives them a 59% chance of doing so, the bookies 66.7%.
There’s just the one League One match this evening (the table below provides an advance forecast for Friday’s match between Lincoln and Rotherham, too). Tranmere hope to turn around their miserable recent run of league results when they host Doncaster Rovers. It promises to be a 1-1 draw (12.8%).