A couple of months ago now, we began projecting forward our forecasts to the end of the season, inserting actual match outcomes into matches according to the forecast expected goals for each team.
We didn’t realise at the time how important this might come to be, as the coronavirus pandemic took hold, and has led to the postponement of all the major football leagues around the world, except a tiny handful (including Belarus).
We’ve shown the Premier League a few times – Liverpool are 100% likely to win the title, but everything else is up for grabs.
Across Europe, talk continues about cutting seasons short – but how could that happen? How could it happen when things remain so uncertain? For example, in Italy Juventus are only a point above Lazio, while Inter’s game in hand could still keep them in the race. How could that be ended now? Who would be awarded the title?
Well, we can use our forecasts projected to the end of the season to get some idea of the uncertainty attached to outcomes. It’s clear that Juventus (100%) and Lazio (99.8%) will both be in the Champions League, and it’s almost certain Inter (96.3%) and Atalanta (81.9%) will be, too.
But the title? Juventus are 52.6%, Lazio 42.2%. Inter are 4.7%, and even Atalanta have the most outside of outside chances at 0.5%.