The final in our current series of looks at how European football seasons will end (England, Italy, Spain, Germany and France) is the Dutch top league, the Eredivisie.

As things stand, Ajax and AZ Alkmaar are separated only by goal difference (45 to 37), tied on 56 points. The tightest of the leagues we’ve looked.

Despite that, our projections give Ajax a 53.5% chance of winning the league to Alkmaar’s 37.7%, reflecting that goal difference, and also that Ajax have scored more goals (68 to 54). Feyernoord maintain an outside chance at 7%.