We’ve extended our end-of-season projections, which we did for English leagues before the COVID19 shutdown of sport, to Italy yesterday. This matters since it appears that increasingly, UEFA and leagues are moving towards inventive solutions to complete leagues before the end of June, when a lot of contracts expire.

So we’ve done the same for all of the other big five leagues, plus the Eredivisie in the Netherlands.

Here, we present La Liga. It’s hard to look beyond Barca. Although they are only two points clear, they have a 70% chance of winning La Liga. This reflects the different fixtures lists facing the two clubs, as much as anything else – our simulations run through all the remaining games of the season and count up how often each team wins particular games. Real Madrid have a 28.3% chance of winning, leaving 1.7% split between four teams – no chance, practically.