We’ve run simulations through to the end of the seasons in Leagues One and Two. These factor in where play had reached by the suspension in March – and also factor in Macclesfield’s increased points deduction.
Each cell represents the probability that the team in that column finishes in the position dictated by that row of the table.
9 thoughts on “Heat Maps for Leagues One and Two”
Prior to Covid-19 expert on all (National Press) media, predict match results, based on their expert opinion. They forecast a result for every match in the EFL, Home, Draw, or Away. The press always acts in the public interest. Based on their independent analysis and percentage of accuracy, they should be given the task of predicting the results of remaining matches in divisions 1 and 2 to erase all doubt and sincerely hope the present decisions are not influenced by the gaming industry.
Football is a funny old game says Jimmy Greaves
One thing that you can be certain of is the unpredictability of the game
Why on earth can’t we carry over every team’s points into a ‘double game’ season next time. No promotion/relegation and the best performing teams over two seasons will still be up there (and vice-versa for the worst).
Why are you showing Rotherham finishing higher than Portsmouth in League 1 please when according to your probabilities, Portsmouth are more likely to finish in either of the top two positions and Rotherham are more likely to finish 3rd than Portsmouth.
This a great spot! Brent wrote the BBC article, rather than us, trying to pass the blame…
The two probabilities are essentially identical, but I am quite intrigued about why the ordering is as it is. Portsmouth should really be ordered before Rotherham by a smidgen, so there may be a bug in my code generating the heat map.
Thanks for pointing this out!
Why has nobody thought about playing with a limited number of fans. If the front row of seats are sold with three empty seats between them then the row behind is left empty. The third row is then sold as follows with the seat diagonally behind the two seats in the front row would be two rows behind the vacant seat on the first row that is directly behind the middle seat between the seat on row one.
If this was carried throughout the stadium it will fill about 15% of the seats thus giving the clubs some revenue. This should be available to home supporters only so each club would have some support when playing at home. (Swings and roundabouts)
I for one would welcome this social distancing if it meant I could support my club.
As long as people sit and watch the game and don’t leave before full time there will be little chance of cross contamination
Tickets should be sold on a first come first served basis because season ticket holders will have already had their money’s worth plus it would give the clubs some income
With only 15% of fans able to attend And no away fans to segregate there would not be such a large number of police required.
This would need fine tuning but for just 9 games till the end of the season out would be worth considering.
Bolton didn’t have a chance on Division one, with started with minus 12 points. I hope that they will go up next year.