Premier League, R37 (21-22 July) — Villa need a win against Arsenal, but only have a 27% chance Written by singletonderbyfanPosted on July 21, 2020July 21, 2020 The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for some of Round 37 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. EPL Forecasts R37 2020 update, RED Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw. Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening. Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match. Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.