Being Reading-based economists, we’re delighted to see that Reading have made a strong start to the season – two wins out of two, highly unexpected too. Well, the Barnsley win was expected, but not the Derby win.

Unexpected since before the Derby game our pre-season forecasts had them with only a 5.4% chance of promotion.

How have things changed then after those opening two matches? The answer is: not all that much. Reading are now 6.9% for promotion, so a small tick up. See below for all the updates before tonight’s match at Huddersfield:

It’s not surprising since only 2 of 46 matches have been completed. A mere 4% of the season. Another 2% this weekend, and maybe we’ll see some more incremental movements in probabilities…