We posted our pre-season forecasts here, and the stand out pick was Everton for relegation. Models are only a function of the data going into them, and for our slimmed down model to simulate, pre-season transfer activity wasn’t in there. But their Elo rating after last season wasn’t particularly high, hence they weren’t expected to rip up trees.
We’ve updated based on the first two game weeks. Everton are now only 25% for the drop, with more likely candidates Brighton (30%), Fulham (31%), West Ham (36%) and West Brom (41%) with higher probabilities.
At the top, Liverpool are 45.5% for the title and favourites, Man City at 36.6%. It already looks like it’s a two-horse race – our probabilities reflect this, the early results suggest it, and the bookmakers agree. Note though that the bookies have City as clear favourites (about 54% to Liverpool’s 39%).