We plan to issue regular end-of-season forecasts this season. Not least, because that’s what all fans are ultimately bothered about – what each match means for their chances of going up or down.
As an Oldham fan I’m significantly exercised by two opening defeats in two games that should have yielded some points. Should I be?
The answer, of course, is probably not. The first two matrices below are for League Two. The first is before the opening matches, and the second is after the first two matches.
Each cell in each matrix is a probability of a team finishing in that position. As would be expected, there’s a huge spread of possible positions for teams – though the teams more likely to be at the top and bottom are clear in the matrices – we’d expect Exeter to be nearer the top, and Morcambe to be nearer the bottom.
Teams with momentum look good – Harrogate and Barrow, though naturally that’s dissipating a bit after two games – despite solid starts by both. Teams dropping like lead balloons equally, as Bolton and Southend are expected to struggle. Tranmere buck that a little.
Southend’s miserable start has had consequences. They go from 23.4% for the drop to 31.3%, a considerable jump in two games this early. Oldham have only moved from 7.8% to 11.2%, which while worrying is only a small change. After all, only about 4% of the season has been played.
Perhaps you’re more concerned about League One, and so below are the two matrices for League One: