For the Championship this week we have favourable predictions for all home teams, although the model suggests quite a few games are going to be close.
There are however one or two differences with how the bookmakers are predicting things (see Mean Odds in the table below).
Our model has adjusted for Reading’s excellent start to the season (3 wins in a row!) and whilst the most likely result is a draw (Watford are unbeaten too, with 1 draw and 2 wins), the expected goals fractionally favour Reading. The bookmakers on the other hand have Watford winning.
The other difference is with Coventry at home to Bournemouth tonight. This is possibly an anomaly based on some of Coventry’s previous form relating to last season’s promotion chase in League 1 vs Bournemouth’s form during their relegation battle at the end of last season in the Premier League. Our model has based on this form, Coventry winning on both likely results and expected goals. The bookmakers though have a 45% chance of Bournemouth winning.
Elsewhere there are some clear outcomes expected – our model agrees quite closely with bookmakers that Luton will beat Wycombe for instance.