We continue at Scorecasting Economists to provide forecasts before matches have taken place. It’s something we enjoy doing – it’s interesting to try and predict something, to record it, and then to see how you did. You can compare against bookmakers, for example, which are another source of forecasts. We do that in our tables each week. In the coming weeks we will (re)develop our pages here on evaluating forecasts – are we even any good?

For now, though, here are our lower league forecasts. We provide a most likely scoreline, which very commonly is 1-1, since this is the most common scoreline. Given this, we also provide a conditional most likely scoreline – the most likely scoreline with the team most likely to win, winning. Henc fo League One below, 1-1 is most likely between Wigan and Doncaster, but because Wigan are most likely to win, a 2-1 Wigan win is the conditional most likely score:

In League Two, we have:

Covid-19 denies us what would have been a fascinatingly tight match between Grimsby and Bradford.