Lots of clear home wins predicted this week. The only 2 main exceptions being Liverpool away to Aston Villa and Man City away to Leeds.

Not much overall disagreement between our model and the bookmaker’s predictions either.

Can Man Utd get a result against Tottenham? United have looked tired since the season started  but Tottenham have had to play a lot of matches very close together, whilst still scoring.

One of the biggest differences in individual result predictions between our model and the bookmakers is in the Newcastle v Burnley fixture, where although both predict a Newcastle win, ours gives just over a 50% likelihood compared to their 39%.

There is also a greater degree of certainty about the bookmakers prediction for Liverpool to win against Aston Villa with an over 70% chance of an away win predicted compared to our 59% (our own End-of-season forecast has a 45% chance of a Liverpool title retention https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/econscorecast/2020/09/26/end-of-season-forecasts-premier-league/).