The Championship returns tonight with forecasts in the table below. Nottingham Forest play Derby County (as Carl Singleton has reminded me, ‘the Brian Clough trophy’) in the first match with Forest predicted to win, with bookmakers agreeing with us.
This prediction is calculated using past results, including goals, whether a team wins or not in their most recent match and also in the last 6 matches. The teams Elo rating is also used.
Expected goals are those drawn from a Poisson model based on past results given the information listed above from recent games, and Elo ratings. For instance, Reading are predicted to score 1.36 goals and Rotherham 0.87.
We then sum up all these probabilities to give an overall probability of each outcome, under “Outcome Probs”.
The most likely scoreline is then in the “Score Picks” columns under “Most”. This is often 1-1, since 1-1 historically is the most likely scoreline, though not exclusively, with Reading predicted to win against Rotherham.
The column “Cond” is the most likely scoreline conditional on the most likely outcome occurring – that’s usually, but not always, a home win since our forecast model builds in the home advantage.
The final two columns are the average bookmaker prices for match outcomes according to Oddsportal
Bookmakers seem to think a Norwich victory against Wycombe with a greater degree of certainty (74.6% chance) than than us (a mere 57.4% chance!) but we both agree that the outcome will be similar.