Although fans can’t attend any of these matches yet, the English Championship returns tonight.
Only one away win is predicted tonight across the matches and that is for Watford against Wycombe. Bookmakers seem to agree with our model (See ‘Outcome probs’ and ‘Score Picks’ for our prediction and ‘Mean odds’ for bookmakers in the table below).
The most one sided game in our model looks to be Middlesbrough at home to Coventry City (57.1% chance of a home win). This is also the game with the highest amount of home goals predicted (1.74 for Middlesbrough, see expected goals).
League leaders Reading look to have a tough game away to Blackburn according to our model with bookmakers also favouring Blackburn, although the most likely (Score Picks, Most) is actually a draw. If there is a win (Score Picks, Cond) then it is likely to be a home win.
Luton v Nottingham Forest has produced a likely home win from our model but bookmakers are favouring Forest (30.2 for a Luton win (Mean Odds, Home) v 39.7% for a Nottingham Forest win).
Overall though the lack of a clear 2 goal difference in the expected goals for any team (when compared to the Premier League where Man City and Liverpool frequently exceed 2 expected goals) and the fact 7 draws are predicted as the most likely outcome, it suggests the Championship is still a tough league to win.