In the Premier League this weekend, 3 matches have a 2-goal win predicted from our forecasting model (see ‘Score Picks, Most’ for the most likely result):
Liverpool at home to West Ham (2-0 Liverpool)
Man City away to Sheffield United (2-0 to Man City)
Tottenham home to Brighton (2-0)
Tottenham actually have the highest Expected Goals score this week (2.37) with Liverpool fractionally lower but bookmakers have a much lower Home win odds for Tottenham (58.6% compared to our model which is at 72.4%).
Burnley v Chelsea also looks like a fairly one-sided match but only a 1-0 win for Chelsea is predicted. Bookmakers tend to agree on the likely winners.
We have predicted a Leeds v Leicester draw but are slightly favouring Leeds on expected goals and also on the ‘conditional’ outcome (i.e. if there is a win in the match it will be Leeds) – the interesting thing here is the bookmakers mean odds are actually 36.6% for each team.