There are more Champions League matches this week. Players and coaches often complain about the intensity of the fixture list, but nobody ever thinks about the forecasters…
We present our forecasts, replete with only three sets of bookmaker prices (not sure why). In all three cases, our model is stronger than the bookmakers in favouring the favourites (Liverpool at Atalanta, Chelsea hosting Rennes and Madrid entertaining Inter). Our forecasts are below, in the usual format:
Outcome probs are our modelled outcome probabilities, based on modelling likely scorelines via team goalscoring strengths from a Poisson regression. The expected goals column comes from that Poisson regression.
Here are Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts for the same matches: