In the Championship there are a few more predicted home wins this weekend than usual, with 7 home wins and 5 draws predicted (see ‘Score Picks, Most’ in the table below).

Reading’s two defeats now have our model predicting a draw for Reading against Stoke (‘Score Picks, Most’), although Reading lead slightly on expected goals (1.48 to 1.31 – see ‘Expected Goals’, Home/Away). Bookmakers favour Stoke over Reading though (see ‘Mean Odds).

Some quite clear differences are finally starting to show in the Championship in terms of expected goals, with Watford almost hitting 2 at home to Coventry (1.97 – see Expected Goals, Home).

Not a great deal of disagreement between our model and bookmakers, at least not in terms of overall outcomes, even if there are some percentage differences in our ‘Outcome Probs’ against their ‘Mean Odds’. As mentioned earlier, the one difference in terms of predicted outcomes is where they favour Stoke over Reading.

Elsewhere in the Division, different fates are predicted for two of the lowest teams in the division – Derby are predicted to win against Barnsley but Nottingham Forest are predicted to beat newly-promoted Wycombe despite Wycombe winning their last 2 matches.