The Championship returns tonight with two teams that currently share a ground, Coventry and Birmingham.
We have the most likely score as a draw (see Score Picks, Most) but our model favours the nominally ‘home’ team, Coventry (47.9% Outcome Probs, Home) vs the bookmakers edging towards Birmingham (see Mean Odds Home – 33.7% v 35.9% away).
League leaders Reading have now lost their last two home matches 3-0. They are away to Bournemouth who are only 2 points behind them in the league. A home win is predicted in our model for Bournemouth (1-0 the most likely result – see Score Picks, Most) and bookmakers largely agree with us, if to a slightly lesser extent (we have 61.7% home win likelihood vs 54.6 for bookmakers).
Home wins or draws are the most likely result across the whole league according to our model, except for one fixture, Wycombe v Brentford, where Brentford are predicted as clear away winners (we have a 47.6% likely away win, bookmakers have 61.1% (See Outcome probs, away and Mean Odds, Away).
Overall our model seems to predict quite similar outcomes to bookmaker odds this week, exceptions being Luton v Blackburn Rovers (we have a draw predicted with a home win the most likely if there is a win (Outcome Probs, Most for the most likely result, Outcome Probs, Cond, for the result conditional on if one team wins).
Bookmakers on the other hand favour Blackburn at 43%.
Bookmakers also just about favour Norwich against Middlesbrough (33.2% Norwich win; 37.1% Middlesbrough), whereas our model predicts a 1-0 win for Middlesbrough.