CHAMPIONSHIP END OF NOVEMBER
The English Championship continues to look closer each week than the Premier League (where some much higher odds for a win are now appearing weekly for the top teams).
Blackburn Rovers v Barnsley
I thought this one was interesting, firstly because Blackburn have so far scored more goals in the league than any other team (25 so far) but their expected goals are only 1.52 against Barnsley. The other thing that’s interesting is the bookmaker mean odds for Barnsley are identical to our model (24.4% of a win for Barnsley). There is only a 1.2% difference in the chances we give for a win (49.8%) to bookmakers (48.6%)
Birmingham City v Millwall and Reading v Bristol City
Both of these games have identical expected goals figures in our model for both home and away teams (1.17 each for the Birmingham v Millwall game and 1.23 each for the Reading v Bristol City game).
Both games are predicted to draw (See Score Picks, Most). There is almost nothing between Reading and Bristol City in our outcome probabilities either (Home 36.3% and Away 36.4%)
Derby v Wycombe
At the bottom of the table we have Derby beating Wycombe and bookmakers agree with us, with bookmakers having higher mean odds of a home win at 52.3% than our 45.6%.
Overall, across the games, our likely outcomes (Outcome Probs) are quite similar to bookmakers mean odds.