Man City v Burnley

Man City v Burnley is the first time this season I’ve seen the Mean Odds for a home win at over 80% (these are bookmaker mean odds taken from This seems all the more likely if Burnley goalkeeper, Pope is out with a head injury (not that our model can take this into account!).

We even have a 16.5% chance of a 2-0 win for Man City in our model (see Home wins, 2-0), higher than we have as Brighton’s overall odds of winning against Liverpool.

Chelsea v Tottenham 

The London derby of Chelsea v Tottenham should prove to be a close affair but both our model and bookmakers favour Chelsea. Chelsea lead on expected goals (1.61, Chelsea to 1.01 for Tottenham). The most likely score is a 1-1 draw according to our model.

Southampton v Man Utd

This match is interesting as the bookmaker odds are almost identical to ours in terms of outcomes (see Outcome Probs, for our model’s most likely outcome – 25.8% home win; and Mean Odds for bookmaker odds – 25.1% for a home win).

Elsewhere in the league bookmakers appear to agree with us that Leicester will win against Fulham, Arsenal are likely to beat Wolves (although their odds of that happening differ by 13.5%).

Overall though it likes another good weekend for goals. Leicester and Man City both have at least 2 for expected goals , Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, West Ham and Man Utd are all on at least 1.5 for expected goals too.