Championship midweek, beginning of December 2020

A draw is predicted as the most likely result from our model for this week for 9 games in the Championship in this set of midweek fixtures (See Score Picks, Most).

Bournemouth v Preston

Exceptions however are Bournemouth v Preston – bookmakers agree with us (See Outcome Probs, for our likely outcome and Mean Odds, Home for average bookmaker odds) that top of the league Bournemouth against 18th placed Preston is a likely Bournemouth win. 2-0 is predicted with Bournemouth on 2.07 expected goals.

Cardiff v Huddersfield 

Cardiff v Huddersfield on the face of it sounds like much less likely to be a 2-0 victory for the home team if we look at where the teams are currently placed in the league (Huddersfield 13th and Cardiff 14th). However, in terms of the last few years, Huddersfield have not beaten Cardiff since 2003 – info on past results taken from:

which largely explains why the model has picked out a 2-0 victory for Cardiff. Bookmakers agree with us but there is a difference in how likely we think it is (62.4% in our model for a home win; 49.3% for bookmakers mean odds).

Elsewhere in the league our model predictions in Outcome Probs are pretty similar to the bookmakers Mean Odds with most games generally looking pretty close.