Championship Scorecasts for weekend of 4 December 2020
This week we can see that every single home team in the Championship has at the very least a higher ‘Expected Goals’ score than the away team (See the Expected goals column in the table below)
In our model this is also reflected in the ‘Outcome Probabilities for Home teams’ (see table below, Outcome Probs). This means that in terms of percentage chance of a win, we favour the home team in each match.
Barnsley v Bournemouth
This is the only match where bookmakers favour the away team (Bournemouth) over the home team. They clearly favour second placed Bournemouth (44.9% to win) whereas we have a draw predicted as the most likely outcome (score picks, most) and only just favour Barnsley (by 0.5%) over Bournemouth.
Overall in the league though there are still lots of 1-1 draws being predicted, emphasising the closeness of the league.
Six 1-1 draws and six 1-0 home wins predicted as the most likely result from our model.
The number of home wins predictions we have means likely bad news for all three of the teams in the relegation spots.
We have chances of an away win for Derby, Sheffield Wednesday and Wycombe ranging from 23.8% for Sheff.Wed. to 20% for Derby. Bookmakers largely agree with this – with their odds of an away win for these teams ranging from 24.2% for Derby to 21% for Wycombe.