Premier League 5/12/20 – 7/12/20

Man City v Fulham

Bookmakers are giving Fulham just a 4.4% chance of an away win against Man City later this afternoon (for Fulham fans, we have a marginally more positive chance of 5.8%!). Bookmaker mean odds are shown in the column on the right of the table below. The team we favour is shown in Outcome Probs in the 2nd column.

Chelsea v Leeds

Although Chelsea look very good this season, I can’t help feeling that Leeds have a slightly better chance than the 7.4% we give them of winning in our model. Bookmakers are inclined to agree as they give them a higher chance (16.6%)

Expect goals from the home teams in these games Man City’s is starting to edge towards 3 expected goals (2.52) and Chelsea are not far behind with 2.43.

Tottenham v Arsenal

The predictions for the North London Derby currently favour league leaders Tottenham. Arsenal are not helped by being 14th in the league whilst Tottenham currently have the meanest defence in the league (only letting in 9 goals so far). Arsenal have also only scored 10 goals so far this season so although we have predicted a draw as the most likely result (see Score Picks, Most in the 3rd Column below), both bookmakers and our model still favour Tottenham:

We have a 45.8% chance of a Tottenham win; Bookmaker mean odds have 48.6%

West Brom v Crystal Palace

Elsewhere in the division it looks like our model differs from bookmakers in the West Brom v Crystal Palace game where we favour West Brom, Crystal Palace are slightly edging ahead for bookmakers.

Burnley v Everton

In the first game today, Burnley v Everton, we favour Burnley whereas bookmakers are clearly favoring Everton (48.7% chance for an away win). Our model has predicted a draw though.

And of course Aston Villa v Newcastle last night was postponed.