Premier League 11 November 

Arsenal v Burnley

Both our model and bookmakers odds are not giving 18th placed Burnley much chance of winning against 15th placed Arsenal.

Despite Arsenal only scoring 10 goals in the league so far this season, Burnley have scored even less (five!) so this looks like one of the easiest games Arsenal are likely to get. We have a 72% chance for an Arsenal win and bookmakers have them at 61.7%. There is a higher chance of a 2-0 win for Arsenal (12.9% – see ‘Home Wins, 2-0’) than a win at all for Burnley (10.5%).

Manchester United v Manchester City

Somewhat strangely, the Manchester derby is actually 6th v 7th in the league  (although both have a game in hand). City have the 2nd joint meanest defence in the league (with Chelsea) with only 11 goals against. Man Utd, despite speculation about the sack for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, have actually won their last 4 league games in a row.

We have a draw predicted as the most likely outcome but along with bookmakers heavily favour Manchester City (we have a 48% chance of City winning as the likely outcome – see ‘Outcome probs’ in the table below and bookmakers have them on 54.7% for a win).

Wolves v Aston Villa

Tomorrow lunchtime’s game looks like a close enough affair. Wolves are in 10th, with newly promoted Villa in 12th. Villa have only played 9 games though to most teams 11 and have scored 20 goals to Wolves 11. As with the Utd v City game, we have a draw as the most likely outcome but heavily favour one of the teams. In this case our model has Wolves a home win at 52.2% and bookmakers have them at 41.9%.

The next full set of games starts on Tuesday and ends on Thursday.