Championship December 12 2020

Cardiff v Swansea

The two Welsh teams in the division meet today, with both teams in the top half of the table. Both teams have the same goal difference (+9) but Swansea are 4th, with Cardiff 9th.

Cardiff however have won their last 4 games and our model favours them over Swansea (1.37 – 0.91 on expected goals) and 47.6% (Cardiff) against 24.9% (Swansea). Bookmakers have the match much closer at 38.8% (Cardiff) against 31.7% (Swansea)

QPR v Reading

We have this as a draw, with bookmakers appearing to come to the same conclusion (almost nothing between home and away odds with bookmakers (35.9% for a win for QPR; 35.6% for a win for Reading).

Our model slightly favours QPR in terms of outcome probabilities and expected goals (39.4/34.6 for who is the most likely winner; 1.38/1.28 for expected goals). That said, Reading have often confounded our model and bookmakers predictions and are 5th in the league.

Wycombe v Coventry

In terms of odds, in our model, this  game looks to have quite a similar outcome to the QPR v Reading game.

It is slightly lower on expected goals and bookmakers more clearly favour Coventry (they are at 40.6% to win with bookmakers) but we have it as a draw and Wycombe at 34.1% to win and Coventry 37.1%.