Championship midweek 15/12/20 – 16/12/20
Reading v Norwich
Fifth placed Reading v second placed Norwich is one of this week’s biggest games in the Championship.
From our model it looks good for Reading, with Reading leading on expected goals 1.75 to Norwich 1.14.
The model has predicted a draw as the most likely result (see Score Picks, Most). A 1-1 draw is 11.1% likely as an outcome (see Draws in the table below).
However, if that is conditional on the most likely result occurring (usually a home win) then Reading are more likely to win 1-0 (see Score Picks, Cond). In terms of likely outcomes we favour Reading at 51.5% for a home win and Norwich at only 24.9% for an away win.
There is a ‘but’ though. Bookmakers disagree with us favouring Norwich at 41.1% with Mean Odds for an Away Win with Reading only at 30.9%.
Interestingly past results, courtesty of www.11v11.com
https://www.11v11.com/teams/reading/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Norwich%20City/
show Reading and Norwich each having won 29 times (although over half these matches were in the old Division Three South!).
Bournemouth v Wycombe
Bad news for Wycombe this week, up against Bournemouth who are the highest scoring team in the league.
Bookmakers give Wycombe only a 9% chance of winning. Our model is slightly nicer (and this has nothing to do with a certain Wycombe fan in the Politics department at Reading) with Wycombe at 19.5%.
The good news for Wycombe fans though is that our model has actually given 1-1 as the most likely score.
Derby v Swansea
A mixed set of predictions here as our model favours Derby over Swansea (45.6% v 27.9% on expected outcomes), whereas bookmakers favour Swansea at 39.8% to 29.8% for Derby.
Swansea are third in the league though with Derby unbeaten in 5 but only one win in that period.
As with all bar two matches in the division, the model has predicted a 1-1 draw (the 2 exceptions being Cardiff v Birmingham City and Coventry City v Huddersfield, where home wins are predicted).
