Championship 18/12/20 – 19/12/20
Across the games, there isn’t a lot of difference this weekend between what our model predicts as likely outcomes and bookmakers odds.
Wycombe v QPR
This is the one match that stands out with a big difference in odds with bookmakers favouring QPR, whilst our model favours Wycombe.
Wycombe are ahead on expected goals at 1.23 to QPR at 1.09.
We favour Wycombe at a 39.3% chance to win with QPR on 32.6%.
Overall the most likely score is 1-1 draw (13.2% chance of that score happening).
Bookmakers however favour QPR at 43.4% to Wycombe’s 29% (this is still far better than the 9% chance to win they gave them against Bournemouth earlier in the week). Neither team has won in the last 5 matches.
Brentford v Reading
This match has the highest likely outcome in the division at 56.6% for a Brentford home win (see Outcome Probs). Bookmakers agree with this as they have Brentford at 55.3% for a home win.
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, Reading have lost 2 of their last 3. Also Brentford have only lost three times this season, whereas Reading have lost 6 overall.
Our model has predicted a 1-0 win for Brentford (this score has a 12.6% chance of occurring).
On expected goals, Brentford have 1.71 to Reading’s 0.9.
The other match worth mentioning is Sheffield Wednesday v Coventry, where we marginally favour the away team, whilst bookmakers favour Sheffield Wednesday, our model still predicts a draw though.