Premier League 26 December and 27 December
Scorecasting returns today after Christmas Day and gives West Brom almost no chance at all against Liverpool.
Our model has West Brom at 1.6% to win with Liverpool at over 90%. Liverpool are showing at 3.99 (so pretty much 4) expected goals, the highest our model has seen this season. Will West Brom play with ten men behind the ball for 90 minutes or has Allardyce already written this match off?
Bookmakers have almost exactly the same odds for Liverpool v West Brom and Man City v Newcastle, both with an 85% chance of win for the home team.
Elsewhere, apart from Aston Villa v Crystal Palace at 66.9% – 14.0%, matches appear much closer.
One big difference this week in our model and bookmakers is the Sheffield Utd v Everton match, where we favour Sheffield Utd (41.%) and bookmakers favour Everton at 53.1%.