English Championship –  New Year 2021

Overall our model looks pretty close to bookmaker odds this week, with one fixture showing different likely outcomes. To check this see ‘outcome probs’ in the table below and bookmaker ‘mean odds’.

Sheff Wed v Derby

Only one fixture actually on New Year’s Day and that is Sheffield Wednesday v Derby.

Derby have won 2 of their last three, as have Wednesday as they both seek to climb out of or away from the relegation zone.

In terms of expected goals there is almost nothing in it with 1.15 v 1.23. We have a draw predicted but bookmakers disagree very slightly on the extent of outcomes (favouring Derby by 0.2%, whereas we favour them by 4%).

Stoke v Bournemouth

The rest of the Championship is kicking off on Saturday.

Our model predicts a 1-1 draw for this game between Stoke and Bournemouth but there is a slight difference in our outcome probabilities  and bookmaker mean odds.

Our model very marginally favours Stoke (by 1.6%) but bookmakers clearly favour Bournemouth at 42.2%).

Huddersfield v Reading

Doesn’t look that great for Reading tomorrow against Huddersfield in terms of our model or bookmaker odds (41.3% Huddersfield win from our model and 38.2% bookmakers) but the most likely score is a 1-1 draw.