Premier League 16 Jan 2021
Liverpool v Man Utd
Top of the table clash here but our model heavily favours Liverpool at 61.7% with Liverpool also on 1.82 for expected goals. Bookmakers disagree slightly having Liverpool at only 48.2% to win (see Mean Odds column in the table below).
However whilst Utd are top, 3rd placed Man City have won their last 4 games and are starting to look serious again.
Man City v Crystal Palace.
We have Crystal Palace at 4% to win with bookmakers placing them at 5.7%. Man City on almost 2 3/4 expected goals and a 15.5% chance of a 2-0 home win.
Wolves v West Brom
Not very often we get a team in the lower half of the league gets to above two on expected goals and has at least a 60% chance of winning. West Brom have been so poor lately, that even with Allardyce that Wolves are overwhelming favourites here for what is the early Saturday kick-off.
Villa v Everton
This is the one match where bookmakers disagree with us on which team is favoured. Our model predicts a 1-1 as the most likely score but slightly favours Villa (at 41.9%). Bookmakers on the other hand favour Everton at 48.6%. I think both teams are currently performing better than predicted at the start of the season (Everton are now 5th and Villa 8th) so a draw feels about right.
Premier League 16 Jan 2021