English Championship Midweek end of January

Bristol City v Huddersfield 

This is a mid-table clash with 10th versus 14th.

Bristol City having won 2 in the last 5 and Huddersfield winning only 1.

Our model has Bristol City as clear favourites (61.5% Bristol City as likely winners).

Bookmaker mean odds however, only slightly favour Bristol (38.7 – 31.3%). Bristol are also on nearly 2 expected goals (1.87) to Huddersfield’s 0.85.

Swansea v Brentford

Two of the top teams in the division (2nd v 4th) face off here with Swansea clear favourites in our model at 56.8% as likely winners and Brentford on only just over 20% to win.

Bookmakers again disagree here as they slightly favour Brentford on 36.2% to Swansea’s 34.1%.

Both teams have won 4 of their last 5 games and whilst Brentford outscore Swansea in terms of  goals scored so far this season, Swansea have let in considerably less.

Our model predicts a 1-1 as the most likely outcome.

Actually, the two teams record against each other is remarkably close –

Brentford have won 32 times,

Swansea 34, with 23 draws

– results from 11v11:


Of the other matches taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday, our model is quite close to bookmakers Mean Odds.