Premier League Midweek, last week of January
This midweek set of scorecasts doesn’t include the Tottenham v Liverpool, Thursday night match.
The two top of the table Manchester teams both look to have very winnable matches tonight with both teams on at least 2 for expected goals.
Man Utd v Sheffield Utd
Our model has this at 2-0 as the most likely score and Man Utd at 71.6% to win with bookmakers having them slightly higher at over 75%.
West Brom v Man City
Our model also has this game at a 2-0 win for the Manchester team. West Brom are at only 6.5% for a win with bookmakers and only 0.6% higher in our model.
There is a also 12.5% chance for a 2-0 Man City win.
Historically the two teams have been a bit closer than the present day with Man City having won 71 times and West Brom 54 (see link below from 11v11)
Of course it was only last month that the two teams drew 1-1 and even this week Guardiola has apparently called Allardyce a ‘genius’ on the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55801431
Newcastle v Leeds and Crystal Palace v West Ham
Kicking off in within the hour tonight are Newcastle v Leeds and Crystal Palace v West Ham. Our model favours Newcastle at 40.4% to Leeds 32.4%, whilst bookmakers favour Leeds at 49.8%. Our model predicts a 1-1.
With the Crystal Palace v West Ham game, on the other hand, our model is very close to bookmakers mean odds – 1.5% between our model favouring West Ham at 41.8% and bookmakers at 40.3%.
Again, the model predicts a 1-1 as the most likely outcome.
Elsewhere our model is almost the opposite of bookmakers mean odds for the Burnley v Aston Villa game (our model favours Burnley).
The model doesn’t take into account manager sackings so whether Chelsea will suddenly perform better after sacking Frank Lampard remains to be seen – they are however favourites in our model and with bookmakers.