A number of key players are injured or doubtful this week for top teams – De Bruyne, Vardy, Kane and the Liverpool first team central defensive options all out and it will be interesting to see how this affects things.
Arsenal v Man Utd
If this game had taken place a few weeks ago, I think most people would have said United would win.
Our model predicts a 1-0 win for in form Arsenal, who we have on a 50% chance to win (see Outcome Probs in the table below). Arsenal also are on at least 0.5 more expected goals than Man Utd.
There is some consolation for United fans though as bookmakers favour them at 38.2% to Arsenal’s 33.4%. If Arsenal lose it will be the 100th time they’ve lost to Man Utd. This fascinating fact from the 11 v 11 website
Man City v Sheff Utd
Man City are overwhelming favourites for this game despite Sheffield United winning in midweek.
Man City have really looked excellent recently and are showing at over 3 expected goals with our model giving only just over 3% chance of a Sheffield Utd win.
Bookmakers also seem to be suggesting it’s not good for United at only 4.5% for a win.
West Ham v Liverpool
This looks like a much closer game considering that at the start of the season, very few people would have predicted West Ham would be in 5th place by this stage.
It’s also unlikely that this game would have been predicted as a 1-1 draw, which our model does. Considering the way Liverpool played in midweek it seems that bookmakers probably have this right at 52.5% for a Liverpool win, compared to our 46%.