Premier League beginning of February – midweek
Midweek Premier League games carry on tonight with 2 early kick offs at 6pm.
One is relegation clash between Sheffield United and West Brom. This is the first time this season Sheff Utd are showing at over 2 for expected goals. They are heavily favoured in our model at 65% to win, although bookmakers have a perhaps slightly more likely 49.5%. In any case neither our model or bookmakers give West Brom much hope (15% our model and 22 from bookmakers). Having said all that I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it ends 0-0!
Wolves v Arsenal is also happening at the same time and our model has this as a 1-1. Our model and bookmakers favour Arsenal at between 42-43%.
Elsewhere in the league bookmakers give Burnley almost no chance against Man City at under 7% to win. Our model gives them a mighty 12% chance instead. Man City are on over 2 expected goals most weeks and a City win does look likely here.
Tottenham v Chelsea begs the question of whether Tuchel will get a new manager ‘bounce’. We don’t model for that (yet, at least) so the model suggests Tottenham will win (52%) , however bookmakers disagree favouring Chelsea at 44%. ‘
Other matches where there are differences in predicted outcomes with our model and bookmakers are Villa v West Ham and Leeds v Everton.