Championship 5 Feb 2021 – 6 Feb 2021
Swansea v Norwich
Historically tonight’s game has been remarkably even, according to the 11 v 11 website
Norwich have won one more game than Swansea (24 to 23 wins) with 10 draws.
Our model has Swansea beating Norwich, with a 13.6% chance of a 1-0 home win and with a 49% chance of winning overall.
Bookmakers favour Norwich, who are top, whereas Swansea are only 3rd but have better goal difference having let in 6 less goals than Norwich, although scoring 2 less).
Elsewhere in the league our model does demonstrate how close the league is ,I pretty much say this every week but it’s true and also plays into the commentary that the Championship is one of the hardest leagues to win or get out of.
The main outliers to that this week are Bournemouth who look good for a win against Birmingham. This is between 56.7% likely in our model and 57 1/2% from bookmakers mean odds.
I think our model and bookmakers may have slightly underestimated Reading, away to Stoke, where neither our model or bookmakers favour 4th placed Reading – we’ve predicted a 1-1 draw but Reading are unbeaten in 6 league games whereas Stoke haven’t won a league game in 7 so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Reading win.