Premier League 17 Feb 2021

There are 2 Premier League games tonight and our scorecast also rolls into Friday’s “weekend” game.

Burnley v Fulham

This is the 6pm kick off and our model predicts a Burnley win.

Bookmakers have a win for either side at exactly the same odds. Historically the two teams have not been evenly matched with Burnley winning 47 times to Fulham’s 31.

Burnley technically have home advantage (although it’s not clear what difference that really makes without fans being at matches). Both teams have won and drawn their last match but are 16th and 18th respectively.

Both teams have improved from the start of the season though so personally I’d expect a draw.

Everton v Man City

The 8pm game looks like it has “Man City win” written all over it.

The league leaders are on fire at the moment and should have Kevin De Bruyne properly available by the weekend at least (he could even play today). Our model predicts a 2-0 City win but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see more than that.

Everton were fairly awful against Fulham at the weekend and with no Calvert-Lewin it isn’t hard to see why their expected goals are showing at 0.72 for this game.

Wolves v Leeds

Friday night football is back for the Premier League, later in the week and whilst bookmakers have this as close (37%-33%) we have a Wolves victory looking likely.

Leeds made be exciting to watch but they are only 1 place above Wolves in the middle of the table clash. Wolves have also won 2 of their last 3 games and although Leeds have won 3 out their last 5, they’ve also lost 2 of the last 3.

I suspect this scorecast is partly built on the fact Wolves have won the last 4 times the teams have met

My first thoughts on seeing the model predict a 1-0 win to Wolves were, not many games with Leeds in turn out to have them losing 1-0. Well the last time the two teams played Wolves won 1-0 away only in October so I guess this now sounds a lot more likely. We have Wolves at over 55% likely winners.