Championship 19 – 20 February 2021
Watford v Derby
Derby have hit a decent run of form since being taken over by new owners and installing Rooney as manager but Watford are 4th and will likely be strong opponents.
Watford also have the highest ELO ranking for an English team outside of the Premier League.
Compared to most teams we review on here these two haven’t actually matched up to each other than often, Watford winning 17 to Derby’s 13.
Apart from one match in the 1960’s, they only regularly began to play each other in the 1980s. Apart from this season there is also then a gap since 2015. Watford won 1-0 earlier in the season.
Unsurprisingly, our model then predicts the most likely score as: 1-0 (see table below)
Millwall v Wycombe
Looking at the Championship league table it’s understandable that our model gives Wycombe (24th) almost no chance against Millwall (11th). Millwall are on over 2 expected goals with Wycombe only on 0.74.
We give Millwall a 13% higher chance to win that bookmakers (70% to 57%). Millwall have won their last 3 and although Wycombe won at the weekend, they also lost in midweek to Derby and are somewhat adrift at the bottom of the league.
Most likely score from our model: 2-0
Reading v Middlesbrough
This is a top half of the table clash, with both teams having won their last game.
Reading are 5th, Middlesbrough are 8th. Reading on the other hand have scored 10 more than Middlesbrough so far, although they’ve let in 3 more.
Reading are on half a goal more than Middlesbrough on expected goals and our model has them at over 50% to win, with Middlesbrough on less than 25%. Bookmakers have the match much closer and their odds would suggest a draw with Reading only favoured at 38%.
So the prediction below is largely based on current form because the last time Reading beat Middlesbrough was in 2015
Our model predicts: 1-0 home win.