Championship 26 February 2021

Derby v Nottm Forest

The ‘Clough derby’, may look these days, like a mid to lower-mid table clash between two teams that seem to be English Championship regulars but there was a time when each of them were arguably the best in England.

The teams ELO strengths are almost equal (Derby 1494 –  Nottm Forest 1499)

In terms of past results the two teams are also relatively equal with Forest winning 4 more games 

For anyone interested in the successful periods for both teams, when Clough (with Peter Taylor) managed them, then I’d probably recommend Jonathan Wilson’s Clough biography. The documentary film ‘I believe in miracles’ about Forest in the late 70’s and early 80’s is also excellent and is probably my favourite football documentary.

Any Derby fans reading this may also have recommendations!

The game itself looks as close as you’d expect, for two teams that are not far apart in the league (18th and 16th). Our model favours Derby at 43% with bookmakers only 6% less. Derby are slightly ahead on expected goals (1.29 to 0.98) and both teams have 3 wins from the last 5 games.

Our model predicts: 1-0 Derby win.

Rest of the Championship:

Wycombe v Norwich

Elsewhere in the league, bottom of the league Wycombe v Norwich gives Norwich a strong chance to pick up 3 more points and either maintain or increase their 7 pt lead at the top. We have a 52% chance of that happening with bookmakers giving a 65% chance.

Our model predicts 0-1

Rotherham v Reading

This is the one of the games where our model differs from bookmaker mean odds. Our model has Rotherham on a 40.3% to win, with Reading only on 31.7%. Both teams have only won once in their last 5 matches but Reading hang on to 5th place whilst Rotherham are 22nd. Bookmakers favour Reading slightly at 37%. Reading really need to win to stay in the play places and Rotherham need it to get out of the relegation zone.

Our model predicts 1-1

For the rest of the games our scorecasts are actually quite similar to bookmakers mean odds.