Premier League 27 February 2021
Chelsea v Man Utd
This is 5th v 2nd with Chelsea now looking much more consistent than at the start of the season.
Our model favours Chelsea, as do expected goals and bookmakers mean odds. Historically Man Utd have come out winners far more often (81-55)
I think this is going to be a real test for an in-form Chelsea. I still think Man Utd’s defence is too weak and Chelsea have a much better chance of winning that they did with Lampard.
Our model gives a 45% chance for a Chelsea win, with 14.5% for a 1-0 and 13.1% for 1-1.
Our model predicts: 1-0
Man City v West Ham
1st v 4th should perhaps produce better odds for the 4th placed teams but not this fixture.
That West Ham have surprised people this season is fairly widely acknowledged. However Man City look very difficult to beat and are regularly scoring and will surely try to dominate this game, crucially they are winning and have key players returning from injury as well.
Man City have an 80% chance to win in our model, giving West Ham just a 6% chance. A 2-0 win for Man City has more than twice the chance of happening at 14% than West Ham winning at all. City don’t just have the best defence (only 14 goals let in), they have scored more than everyone else (50). I actually think there is a strong chance City will get more than 2 goals today.
Our model predicts: 2-0
Tottenham v Burnley
Which Tottenham will turn up?
In midweek they put four past Wolfsberger and this does feel like the sort of match most managers would be looking to play all four of Kane, Ali, Bale and Son from the start – it’s got to be better than whatever else has been going on for them in the league recently.
Feels hard to justify not doing that but then there is Mourinho, so who knows?
Tottenham are still likely to win, regardless of that but will surely have to attack Burnley.
Our model has Tottenham with a 66% chance to win with bookmakers only 4% less. Tottenham also lead on expected goals (over 2), hence the 2-0 prediction below.
Our model predicts 2-0
Elsewhere in the league there are two matches where our model’s likely outcomes differ significantly from bookmakers mean odds.
Both games are at the lower end of the table.
Palace v Fulham and West Brom v Brighton. Our model favours both home teams whilst bookmakers favour the away team.