English Championship Midweek, 2nd Mar 2021
Our scorecasting model for the English Championship is currently producing some fairly similar predictions when compared to bookmakers mean odds at the moment (see table below). There are one or two exceptions each week but not many. There are occasional teams that have broken this slightly though – one is Barnsley who have come to serious form in recent weeks and Reading who often defy predictions of defeat or a draw. This week there is also a difference in the Coventry v Middlesbrough game.
Bristol City v Bournemouth
This is one of the few games where there is a large difference in the odds for a win for either team when comparing our model to bookmakers. Bookmakers have Bournemouth as overwhelming favourites, we have the two teams within 1% of each other in terms of who wins.
Most likely score: 1-1
QPR v Barnsley
Barnsley have now won 5 games in a row and I suspect our model is slightly underestimating them.
Our model slightly favours them at 37%, against 35.4% for QPR with bookmakers also placing Barnsley at 37% but QPR 2% lower. There certainly looks like there is space in the playoffs or even promotion so wouldn’t be surprised if the current layout of the table changes quite a bit before the end of the season.
Most likely score: 1-1
Reading v Blackburn
Reading managed to halt a two match losing run and win at the weekend. Blackburn managed a draw against ten men, after losing 5 in a row. Reading are at 47% to win in our model (bookmakers have them at only 40%) with Blackburn only 26%.
The teams have played each other remarkably few times. Apart from one FA Cup match in 1913, it was not until 1979 that they actually played each other. Reading won 4-2 earlier in the season and the last 2 games between the clubs have produced 13 goals!
Most likely score: 1-1 (although a 1-1 win is at 12.6% likely to happen, a 1-0 home win is at 12.5%!)
