English Championship 5 March 2021

Huddersfield v Cardiff

Cardiff manager Mick McCarthy has just signed a new contract and Cardiff are one of the teams just outside the playoffs. They are putting together the sort of run of form that often leads to promotion or a playoff final at the least.

Cardiff also are the second highest scorers in the league now (53 goals for, only Brentford, in 2nd place have more with 61) and have the joint 4th best goal difference.

Huddersfield on the other hand are only 5 points away from the relegation places and have the second worst defence in the league (they’ve let in 51 goals and only bottom placed Wycombe have more with 55).

All of that surely suggests a Cardiff win tonight which will increase the pressure on the teams in the playoff places…..

However, our model predicts: 1-1 but looking at the details below, this is very marginal – an exact 1-1 draw is 10.7% likely. However, conditional on a win, Cardiff win and away results are all three of the next most likely results:

0-1 (10.4%),

1-2 (9.9%)

0-2 (9.6%)

Cardiff are also 56% to win in our model (with bookmakers more cautious at 44%).

Reading v Sheffield Wednesday

Finally a match where Reading are outright predicted to win both in our model and bookmakers mean odds (see table below for both). This has probably cursed them, so sorry about that.

Reading have more than half a goal extra in expected goals than Sheff. Weds (1.56 to 0.9).

Reading are 53% to win in our model and 52% with bookmakers. This is in part because Sheffield have lost their last five league games (their last win was also against Wycombe). Reading have won their last two so hopefully this scorecast will herald good news.

Our model predicts: 1-0