Premier League

Only one Premier League match in midweek this week (there is also Champions League). There is also a Friday night game.

Man City v Southampton

It felt like Man City were unstoppable and defeating every team in their path until playing Man Utd at the weekend. That said they will still look very difficult to beat with any modelling or odds based analysis . They have a 75% chance of winning tomorrow in our model and nearly 80% with bookmakers mean odds.

Southampton are still just about vulnerable to relegation but won at the weekend and although it was against Sheffield Utd, as far as football cliches go, “you have to win those” and they did. This probably gives Southampton a better chance that at any other point this year at least but it still looks like a City win.

Most likely score: 2-0

Newcastle v Aston Villa

Also showing in the model below is Friday’s game.

Our model gives Newcastle a better chance than Villa of winning (why???) but is corrected by bookmakers mean odds giving Villa a 48% chance of winning. This is likely to be due to the model including home advantage and that in the last 2 games although Newcastle have drawn both, Villa have lost and drawn.

Most likely score: 1- 0



Although the table below shows four games this midweek, the Luton v Rotherham game is postponed, leaving two games tonight and one tomorrow.

Barnsley v Derby

Barnsley are now in the top six and just keep winning. This match has slightly less of a predictable feel about it than the other games this midweek (all of the rest are much closer when comparing our model to bookmakers mean odds). We have Barnsley on 56% to win whereas bookmakers only have them on 49%,

Most likely score: 1-0

Blackburn v Swansea

Tonight’s first game is the closest in odds with almost nothing between the two teams and very similar likely outcomes. Bookmakers very slightly favour Swansea, whereas we favour Blackburn. One of the reasons for this is that despite Swansea being third, Blackburn have the best goal difference of the bottom half of the table and also have scored the most goals.

Most likely score 1-1

QPR v Wycombe

Our model is again almost identical to bookmakers odds giving Wycombe only 17% chance of a win. QPR although mid-table have the 2nd best goal difference in the lower half of the table so our model thinks they will win

Most likely score: 1-0