Premier League 12 March 2021

I covered last night’s Newcastle v Aston Villa game earlier in the week but there are plenty of other games this weekend.

Arsenal v Tottenham

This weekend’s London derby is naturally pretty close.

Both teams have looked interesting at times this season, with Spurs possibly edging it slightly this week in terms of form, winning their last three league games.

Of course it all depends whether Spurs can carry on their most recent form, where the reintroduction of Ali and the return to form of Bale have clearly helped.

Arsenal’s play led to a ridiculous goal last weekend and if the Spurs forward line turns up and presses them, you feel like Arsenal could be in trouble.

That said, although Arsenal are stuck in mid-table, bookmakers slightly favour them at 37.4% to Tottenham’s 34.5. Our model slightly favours Tottenham at 38% to 36.5% for Arsenal.

Most likely score: 1-1 

Leeds v Chelsea

This is today’s 12.30pm game.

Historically speaking, it’s not really that surprising that they are reasonably well matched over time, with Leeds winning 39 times to Chelsea’s 35

Chelsea have been in excellent form since getting a new manager and are back in the top four and pushing injury ravaged Leicester for third place. Leeds are one place below Arsenal, in 11th.

Given all this, our model predicts a Chelsea win at 54.2% with bookmakers mean odds being almost identical at 54.3%.

Most likely score: 0-1 (this is at 14.4% a pretty high figure for an individual scoreline, although Man Utd and Leicester have higher percentages for their most likely results this week).

Southampton v Brighton

Our model favours Southampton in this game and whilst Brighton have lost their last three games, Southampton haven’t done that much better lately, although have managed a win in their last five.

Our model gives Southampton at 47.5% as likely winners. Bookmakers on the other hand only have them 31.5% and actually favour Brighton at 37.3%.

Brighton don’t score as many as Southampton but have let in 14 less goals.

Historically Southampton have won 38 times to Brighton’s 20 with Brighton last winning in 2012

Most likely score: 1-1 (this is showing at 11.9% likely in our model but with a 1-0 home win showing at 10.5%).