Championship midweek 16 March 2021
This week our model favours the same teams as bookmaker mean odds for all matches (see the table below for our ‘Outcome Probs’ and bookmakers ‘Mean odds’).
I can’t remember that happening hardly at all this season.
The emphasis however is different, i.e. there are, in some cases, differences of up to 15% in terms of the extent that a team is favoured to win.
Blackburn v Bristol City
The biggest difference in our model and bookmakers odds is with the Blackburn v Bristol City game tomorrow.
We favour Blackburn at 39.5% but bookmakers have them at 53%. Based on that, our model predicts a draw as the most likely (a 1-1 draw is showing 12.8%).
Norwich v Nottingham Forest
Norwich are surprisingly predicted to draw with Nottingham Forest in our model (1-1 being 13% as the most likely scoreline) but they have won their last 8 games, hence the fact there is a 24% difference in the likely winner with bookmakers (24% Forest to 48% Norwich).
Forest haven’t won for 4 matches but our model takes into account home advantage (despite Covid-19 meaning the biggest home advantage, fans attending has somewhat nullified that effect).
Cardiff v Stoke
Our model heavily favours Cardiff at 57.5% with a 1-0 home win predicted. Bookmakers however only have Cardiff at 44% likely winners.
Cardiff have almost an extra goal in terms of expected goals at 1.8 to 0.95 for Stoke.
Only 3 places separate the two teams but Stoke have lost four of their last five and this is reflected in that 1-0 most likely score.