Premier League 19 March 2021


The Premier League clashes with the FA Cup this weekend, so there are only four Premier League matches taking place. Our model below has somewhat struggled with this, so shows a lot of the matches that have subsequently been re-arranged.

Fulham v Leeds

As with the West Ham v Arsenal match our model is very close to bookmakers mean odds for these two teams. Both teams have very similar expected goals for this match with the expectation that Fulham’s defence effectively cancels out Leeds attacking options.

Most likely score: 1-1

Brighton v Newcastle

This is a pretty important relegation battle with 16th v 17th. Brighton have at least won a game in the last five, unlike Newcastle. One place separates the teams but 10 goals are the gap in goal difference with Brighton scoring more and conceding less than Newcastle. We favour Brighton at 47%, whereas bookmakers have them at 57%.

Most likely score 1-0 (our model shows this at 12.7% likely. It also shows a 1-1 draw as 12.6%!)

West Ham v Arsenal

West Ham are the highest placed of the teams playing this weekend. This game is 5th v 10th. Both teams have won 3 games in the last 5.

Given all that it’s hardly surprising that the most likely score in our model is a 1-1 draw.  The odds in favour of an Arsenal win or a West Ham one are pretty much the same in our model as with bookmakers. Neither team gets above 40% likelihood for a win and Arsenal just edge it on expected goals.

Aston Villa v Spurs

After Tottenham’s performance in midweek this is a match Tottenham need a win from, now they are out of the Uefa League. If the sort of Tottenham that turned up in midweek shows up for the rest of the season it will be no Europe next year for them.

Our model is completely out of sync this week due to the FA Cup so there is no prediction for this match, however I think Villa will win 1-0 and if they do Mourinho is in serious trouble.